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  • On the change in the Austrian business cycle. Bilek-Steindl, Sandra // OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement & Analysis;2012, Vol. 2012 Issue 1, p109 

    This paper analyses the change in the Austrian business cycle over time using data back to 1954. The change in the cyclical pattern is captured using a non-linear univariate structural time series model where the time of the break point is estimated. Results for GDP series suggest a break in the...

  • BUSINESS CYCLES IN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: DO THEY SHARE COMMON MOVEMENTS? Hern�ndez, Jorge Herrera // Journal of Applied Economics;Nov2004, Vol. 7 Issue 2, p303 

    In this document I apply a recently developed econometric technique to prove the existence of common movements between time series. Said methodology is used to test and measure the existence of common cycles between the economies of Mexico and the United States for the 1993-2001 period. It is...

  • Business Cycles in Pakistan. Mahmood, Tahir; Arby, Muhammad Farooq // International Journal of Business & Social Science;2012, Vol. 3 Issue 4, p271 

    Gross domestic product, like any other time series, may be considered a combination of four processes, viz. long-run trend, business cycles, seasonal variations and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to these components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition...

  • CAUSES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS CYCLE IN LITHUANIA: A STRUCTURAL VAR APPROACH. Proškutė, Aurelija // Ekonomika / Economics;2012, Vol. 91 Issue 1, p41 

    We investigate the structural disturbances underlying the business cycle in Lithuania in the bivariate time series framework. In the structural VAR model constructed productivity, hours of work and output fluctuations over the business cycle are composed of technology and non-technology shocks....

  • An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP. Chen, Yen-Hsiao; Quan, Lianfeng; Liu, Yang // China Economic Review (1043951X);Dec2013, Vol. 27, p69 

    Abstract: This paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the...

  • Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model. Luginbuhl, Rob; de Vos, Aart // Empirical Economics;2003, Vol. 28 Issue 2, p365 

    It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our model incorporates a Markov switching regime to...

  • Cyclical convergence of Central and Eastern European countries to the Euro area core.: New methodological approach. ALEXE, Ileana; POPOVICI, Oana Cristina // Theoretical & Applied Economics;Apr2013, Vol. 20 Issue 4, p103 

    The current paper develops an analysis on the degree of business cycle convergence of the new member states of the EU towards the Euro area core (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) during 1996-2010. Unlike the previous research, the study takes into consideration the...

  • DATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN SOUTH AFRICA BY USING A MARKOV-SWITCHING MODEL. Bismans, F.; Le Roux, P. // Journal for Studies in Economics & Econometrics;2013, Vol. 37 Issue 3, p25 

    This paper applies a Markov-switching dynamic regression model to the real quarterly GDP time series from 1981 to 2010 in order to detect turning points in the South African business cycle. The model comprises several explicative variables. These include short- and long-term interest rates,...

  • Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations in Caribbean Economies. KIANI, Khurshid M. // International Journal of Economic Perspectives;Jun2011, Vol. 5 Issue 2, p121 

    We investigate whether business cycle dynamics in three Caribbean countries namely, Barbados, Jamaica, and Trinidad are characterized by asymmetries in conditional mean. We provide evidence on this issue using a variety of time series models. Our approach is fully parametric, and our testing...

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